The Saga Continues

With the focus off of resigning priorities in Mike Lowell and Curt Schilling and after picking up options on Julian Tavarez and Tim Wakefield, the Sox are basically left waiting for something to do. Yesterday, I wrote that a trade for Minnesota Twins hurler Johan Santana to the Boston Red Sox isn’t very likely. I might be wrong, but I may still be right.

Reports have surfaced that the Sox are dipping their toes in the push for Venezuela’s favorite son. Here are the stats on Santana to this point in his career. He’s a career 3.22 ERA left-hander who can strike out righties and lefties. His record is currently 93-44 and has 1,381 K’s.

Aside from this past year, he’s been ranked number one or two in strikeouts and ERA in each of the previous seasons. Dig a little deeper to more important stats and you’re looking at a pitcher with a career WHIP of 1.094, a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.79, and he’s striking out 9.5 batters every start.

No doubt he’s career numbers are ridiculous. He’s clearly one of the best if not the best starting pitcher in all of baseball. For most Minnesota fans, the ones that don’t kid themselves, they knew given the Twins history of holding on to blue chip talent that Santana’s days under the dome were numbered. So now the arms race (no pun for God’s sake) is on to try and acquire him in a trade this offseason before you have to sell the farm when he’s a free agent.

I know there are other teams in the mix for Santana, clearly I’m not concerned if Santana goes to the Dodgers or Mets. I’m more interested in the prospect of him following Torii Hunter to the Angels or even worse, the possibility of him moving to the Yankees.

Let’s focus on what matters most, and that would be the race between the Yankees and Sox. Let me premise this by saying that the Sox may just be talking to get the Yanks to go overboard on their offer to the Twins. I wouldn’t put it past them, who would?

First, here is what the Twins seem to be looking for. Obviously they’re in the centerfielder market. The Yankees will bring Melky Cabrera and the Sox have either Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury. A starting pitcher or two will be needed also. New York has Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Boston would counter with the no-hitter throwing Clay Buchholz and “Mr. Feelgood Story” Jon Lester. The problem is both teams have players to this point listed as untouchable in Chamberlain for the Yanks and Ellsbury for the Sox.

This tips the balance in the Yankees favor since Cabrera has more upside at the plate than Crisp. Holding out hope that sending Ellsbury into Twins pinstripes in exchange for Crisp returning to his past glory while he was in Cleveland is a stretch. There’s a reason Francona benched Crisp during the playoffs in favor of Ellsbury.

The Yankees are going to be more willing to part with Cabrera to have Santana counter postseason god and Yankee killer Josh Beckett. The Twins have shown more than mild interest in Crisp, however not for a deal of this magnitude. The Sox would have to give up more than just Lester/Buchholz and Crisp.

My guess is that the Sox would have to throw in Lester on top of Buchholz and Crisp. The least likely to go would be Buchholz especially after his no-hitter against Baltimore in September. Hopefully it wasn’t a fluke and was a sign of things to come, or else looking back in a few years it could be seen as huge mistake on Boston’s part.

One other factor that seems most important to me is Santana’s personal interest. He has a full no-trade clause and would more than likely exercise that if any team doesn’t give him exactly what he wants. He’ll more than likely return to form in 2008 and then will demand a king’s ransom when he files for free agency if no trade is made this year. Oh yeah, his personal interest. Reportedly it’s with the Yankees.

After the two teams that I’m most concerned about other players include the Mets, whose chances are dwindling because of their top prospects losing value and interest from other teams. Straight up trade of Santana for Jose Reyes? Anyone? Anyone in Minneapolis?

The Dodgers are loaded with plenty of young viable talent, however the organization itself is a cesspool loaded with front office idiocracy and has been for quite some time. I wouldn’t expect the Dodgers to luck themselves into a trade and land Santana.

Plus, from some of his rants while still with the Twins as they fell apart before the All-Star break, he wants to move to a winner, not an underachieving National League team. Even though with his ability, he could rule the NL along the lines of a tyrant like Hugo Chavez rules his homeland.

I’m giving the most likely scenario to the Yankees, because after all, they have more players and money to offer the Twins and Santana. Having him in the division would make things a little more difficult for the Sox to supplant the Yanks as the top team in the East. Despite the addition of Santana making the Yankees a division and playoff favorite again, let me impart a little information on you.

Santana is the Alex Rodriguez of playoff pitchers. Phenomenal regular season success, marginal post season success. Santana has won one game starting after the regular season is in the books with a 7.94 ERA in his first three postseason starts. He’s given up 35 hits and 15 earned in 34 innings pitched with 32 strikeouts and 10 walks.

Compare this to Beckett and you’re looking at the Sox ace throwing a 1.73 ERA with six wins and two losses, 14 earned runs in 72.2 innings which is less runs in twice as many innings as Santana. He’s also struck out 82 with only 14 walks. And Beckett has two World Series rings, Santana has none. Beckett has been to the dance, and there's no accounting for experience in most cases.

We all know that between the Sox and Yankees in the past few years the postseason is where it counts. A-Rod has come up short while players like Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Ellsbury have made names for themselves and come up huge.

You want to give me a choice between having our young talent and having Josh Beckett versus Johan Santana with a depleted lineup and weaker all-around pitching? I’ll take Beckett over Santana because of the postseason factor and because Santana will actually make the Yankees weaker.

Any team would be dumb to not want Santana, but it’s all about what you have to give up with a trade. So go ahead New York, take Santana. Give up some players that could anchor your team in the future. Really, I’d rather you have him given the current circumstances. Better you than us. You still haven’t learned, have you? Patching up your team is no substitute for building a winner the correct way.

Oh, before I forget. Here’s a picture of Kevin Youkilis from a couple weeks ago after shaving off his Van Dyke for charity. It was doing a good job covering up his Bill Cowher-esque chin.